GOP GAINS IN VIRGINIA GOV RACE - AT 10:21 P.M. ET:   There'll be two major governorships decided next month - Virginia and New Jersey.  In Virginia, the Republic candidate, Bob McDonnell appears to be pulling ahead.  Three late polls show McDonnell leading his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds, by five to eleven points.

New Jersey is tighter.  Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is intensely unpopular, but New Jersey is a Democratic state and Corzine's opponent, Chris Christie, is singularly unexciting.  Still, Christie is ahead by three or four points.  His lead continues to shrink, however, and the race is too close to call.  My hunch is that Corzine will pull it out.

A Republican win in Virginia, though, will be a jolt to the Democrats, who have been celebrating, prematurely it appears, Virginia's drift leftward in recent elections.

October 5, 2009